A Decisive Indicator Is Predicting a Huge and Destructive War for the USA
The year 2022 is, so far, full of wild guesses and random forecasts.
Some of these predictions are made by investors based on historical cycles, others are made by entrepreneurs based on their market perceptions, and there are a few based on dreams under psychoactive substances (and these aren’t even the most baseless, since there are also economists’ forecasts).
Among all the indicators, numbers, and calculations made to predict the future, there is always the famous point of no concordance. It is that single point of data that creates an exception.
- The inverted yield curve predicted almost every recession in the last century… except one.
- A sharp drop in the US consumer confidence predicted most of the economic crises in the last century, but not all.
- Nearly every time US interest rates rose, a drop in house prices followed, except between 1993 and 1998.
But there are some rare indicators that have no point of failure. So far, they are perfect. Still, even the most accurate indicators will fail sooner or later.
But what if I told you that there is an indicator that, during the last 160 years, has never failed?
And what if I told you that this thing predicted every single major war (over 100K deaths) in which the US was involved?
That is the case with the total public debt/GDP ratio.
And it is sending a very alarming signal to us.
What is the Total Public Debt/GDP Ratio?
Like many other economic indexes, it is a ratio between two different pieces of data. Therefore, I will explain each one of them and later tell you what the ratio between them means.
The Total Public Debt
Every title of public debt is an agreement between a government and its holders (lenders) that the government will…